Partai Politik dan Perilaku Pemilih Di Indonesia (Studi Pada Pemilu Legislatif 2009, 2014, dan 2019)

Danis Tri Saputra Wahidin, Ali Muhyidin, Iswahyuni Iswahyuni, Anwar Ilmar

Abstract


This study discusses the voter behavior that influence the fluctuation of  political party voters changing in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 legislative elections. The undestanding of political parties with a rational voter behavior approach is carried out to detect the relationship of political parties performance to the people's choices in the Indonesia Legislative elections. However, the Indonesian voters behavior  cannot be caracterized absolutely rational, because the sociological and the psychological voter behavior also strongly influences Indonesian voters, and even influences one another. This case study found that the behavior of Indonesian voters is volatile. loyal voters in the 2014 general election are predicted to only amount 20%. In the 2019 elections, loyal party voters tended to be stable due to several factors, 1) The political bipolarization between supporters of the Jokowi-Maruf and Probowo-Sandi pair, 2) high public satisfaction with the performance of the Jokowi-JK government, 3) stable public trust in government and opposition parties and 4) holding legislative elections in conjunction with the presidential election. This condition can be seen from the motives of political party voters who choose because of several main factors, namely figures, ideology and political work programs.

Penelitian ini mendiskusikan tentang perilaku pemilih yang mempengaruhi perubahan suara partai politik pada pemilu legislatif 2009, 2014, dan 2019. Pendalaman partai politik dengan pendekatan perilaku pemilih rasional dilakukan untuk mendeteksi hubungan kinerja partai politik terhadap perilaku pemilih pada pemilu Legislatif di Indonesia. Meski demikian, perilaku pemilih Indonesia tidak dapat dikatakan rasional secara mutlak, karena perilaku pemilih sosiologis dan psikologis juga masih kuat mempengaruhi pemilih Indonesia, bahkan saling mempengaruhi antara satu dengan yang lainnya . Studi kasus ini menemukan bahwa perilaku pemilih Indonesia bersifat fluktuatif. pemilih loyal di Indonesia pada pemilu 2014 diprediksi hanya berjumlah 20%. Pada pemilu 2019 pemilih loyal partai cenderung stabil karena didorong oleh beberapa faktor, yaitu 1) bipolarisasi politik antara pendukung pasangan Jokowi-Maruf dan Probowo-Sandi, 2) tingginya kepuasan masyarakat pada kinerja pemerintahan Jokowi-JK,  3) stabilnya kepercayaan publik pada partai pemerintah maupun partai oposisi dan 4) pelaksanaan pemilu legislatif  yang bersamaan dengan  pemilu presiden. Kondisi ini terlihat dari motif pemilih partai politik yang memilih karena beberapa faktor utama yaitu faktor figur, Ideologi dan program kerja.


Keywords


Partai Politik; Perilaku Pemilih; dan Pemilu Legislatif

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31000/jgcs.v4i1.2376

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